The established British Medical Journal (BMJ), not known for being political, has accused the UK government of “politicisation, “corruption,” and suppression of science”

The criticism was scathing and detailed and named names.  It begins: “When good science is suppressed by the medical-political complex, people die”, and continues:

“Science is being suppressed for political and financial gain. Covid-19 has unleashed state corruption on a grand scale, and it is harmful to public health. Politicians and industry are responsible for this opportunistic embezzlement. So too are scientists and health experts. The pandemic has revealed how the medical-political complex can be manipulated in an emergency—a time when it is even more important to safeguard science.”

You can read an analysis of the article and where the fingers are pointing in the National Scot.

Why widespread vaccination of the population of India is not needed.

With 1.4 Billion people, India has the second largest population in the world, and some of the largest and most densely populated urban areas. Mumbai, Delhi, Kolkata and Chennai each have over 20 million inhabitants. In the time of COVID19, the congestion of hundreds of Indian cities would seem to offer a perfect storm for the virus to infect hundreds of millions of people. Indeed the main stream media have repeated the description of COVID “ripping through India”.
It is not possible for much of the population to social distance in crowded urban areas. It is also not possible to put the country into extended lockdowns like those imposed in Europe, without also creating mass starvation in a population dependent on a daily wage. There have been warnings that the already challenged Indian health would collapse under the soaring increase in mortality.

And yet, this hasn’t happened. In proportion to the size of the population, the numbers of deaths from COVID19 remain small, and those most affected are the very old, with more than a 99.5% recovery rate in those under 75 years old.  In a population of 1.4 Billion, almost 11 million reported cases there have been only 155,360 deaths ascribed to COVID19. We don’t need to repeat that every death is a tragedy, but it’s important to keep a sense of proportion. COVID19 has not “ripped through India”, India has fared very well so far, especially when compared to Europe.

If India already had widespread natural immunity conferred by exposure to previous corona viruses, does the country need to vaccinate their entire population as is being suggested, especially when research shows that natural immunity lasts significantly longer than vaccine conferred immunity. When the vaccines in question are experimental, with limited data on whether they prevent infection (apparently not), or transmission (apparently not) or long term adverse effects (at this stage unknown), it would seem profoundly unethical.

Even though the US election has not been finally ratified and certified, in spite of much of the corporate media around the world declaring it already for Biden, suggestions of his strategy for Covid19 are already being leaked.

Biden has said on his site joebiden.com, that people should wear masks outside the house when around people, and it should be made mandatory in every state and enforced by local authorities. He has also spoken about increased testing, even though the country has already been widely testing asymptomatic people, which is leading to the huge increase in numbers of positive ‘cases’. Michael Osterholm, the possible Covid19 spokesperson for Biden, has said that a tighter national lockdown for 4-6 weeks could well be implemented, in spite of all the evidence that lockdowns don’t work.

When asked about a possible vaccine, Biden has said that, “You can’t force the vaccine on people, but you can stop people coming to school without it”, which in other words is a mandate. On top of that Biden is talking about giving $25 billion for the vaccine’s distribution. Therefore, the first comments from the maybe next President is not looking too bright, as he may follow the same mistakes European countries have made in initiating profoundly damaging lockdowns for the 2^nd or 3^rd time.

The CEO of Pfizer cashed out 62% of his stocks in the COVID19 vaccine on the day the press release reported that their vaccine had been shown to be 90% effective. The press release led to a 15% jump in Pfizer stock and the CEO gained $millions on the deal.

This is legal if the date of sale is set in advance, as part of a ‘pre-determined trading plan’ – in this case it was set back on August 19th, if the share price reached a certain level.

“Through our stock plan administrator, Dr. Bourla authorized the sale of these shares on August 19, 2020, provided the stock was at least at a certain price,” a Pfizer spokesperson told Business Insider.”

However, the seller, in this case the CEO can affect when the press release goes out. This is exactly what Moderna did with their Phase 1 results, based on just 8 test subjects. The press release went out and within hours the stock has risen substantially and the CEO sold a large number of shares at the new, higher price and personally made millions. (Covered in our news feed on June 4th).

Whatever your thoughts about the vaccine, one thing is for sure, the release of positive information is carefully managed to ensure that top shareholders can take full financial advantage.

Just to put the Pfizer press release into context, the results released were based on just 94 test results out of tens of thousands in the study. Were they hand picked to create a press release worthy of a stock jump? There is no way to know at this stage, but the mainstream media certainly seems to think so.

Despite the deaths of approximately 20,000 people in UK care homes in the first months of the COVID19 pandemic, the government are proposing to repeat the process to “protect the NHS” in the event of a second wave.

A leaked document, acquired by Channel 4 News reveals that care homes will be asked to receive patients from hospital within two hours of being given the direction to discharge, whether they have tested positive for CoV, or have never been tested.

This is beyond comprehension. Elders already in COVID19-free care homes risk becoming infected as the infection spreads throughout their home. Relatives are not allowed to visit family members in care homes to prevent the introduction of the infection. Care home staff are at risk of taking it home to their own family and community.

Back in the Spring when the NHS was trying to cope with a sudden influx of patients, the care homes said they were not prepared, trained or supplied with the necessary PPE, and to all intents and purposes the same situation still pertains.

The testing process has fallen short by every possible metric. The government are planning to throw £500 million at the care home problem, but these issues cannot be fixed by money alone, witness the £10 billion failing Track and Trace initiative itself.

Comment: The on going restrictions in the UK were initially to ‘flatten the curve and protect the NHS’. During those first months, an estimated 47% (at least 20,000) of the total UK deaths ascribed to COVID19, were in care homes. Patients were discharged from hospital into care homes without being tested. Care homes were not equipped to quarantine residents who tested positive, staff were asked to work in unsafe environments without proper equipment and residents were pressured to sign Do Not Resuscitate notices.

If we forgive these unnecessary deaths as the result of a panicked government trying to cope with an overwhelmed NHS – what response can we have when the government plans to do exactly the same again during the coming flu season, when for almost seven months the NHS has been focused on COVID19, to the exclusion of all other services, hospitals are largely empty, Nightingale hospitals and the rented space in private hospitals still unused?

This is now blatant and wilful disregard of the lessons that should have been learned in the Spring and might literally be described as murder, given the definition of manslaughter is unlawful killing without forethought. No doubt these cases will be used as part of the justification for restrictions imposed because of the ‘second wave’, even though they are directly caused by government policy.
Anyone with an elder in a care home needs to ponder their future. And where is parliament to hold the government to account on this?

As the consequences of the COVID19 global lockdown become known, the economy of the United States is revealed to be in a terrible state. In the ongoing debate of whether lockdown will cause more harm than good, Activistpost listed the following statistics:   in Activistpost:

“#1 According to the San Francisco Chamber of Commerce, more than half of all the storefronts in the entire city of San Francisco are no longer in business.

#2 Just a few hours ago, New York City reported that it had an unemployment rate of almost 20 percent during the month of July.

#3 Speaking of New York, 83 percent of all restaurants in the city were unable to pay their full rent last month.

#4 In 2020, the state of Louisiana has lost twice as many jobs as it did after Hurricane Katrina.  By the way, many are concerned that Hurricane Laura could soon become a similar monster storm.

#5 In the state of South Carolina, an eye-popping 52 percent of all renters “are at risk of eviction”.

#6 Americans now owe more than 21 billion dollars in unpaid rent.

#7 Overall, 27 percent of all Americans did not make their rent or mortgage payment last month.

#8 According to the Mortgage Bankers Association, the delinquency rate on residential mortgages increased by 386 basis points last quarter.  That was the most rapid rise that we have ever seen by a very wide margin.

#9 U.S. bankruptcies are already at their highest level in 10 years and they are expected to surge dramatically as we approach the end of this calendar year.

#10 For companies with more than 1 billion dollars in assets, it is being projected that there will be a record number of bankruptcies in 2020.

#11 World trade plunged to the “lowest levels on record” during the month of June.

#12 The percentage of hotel mortgages that are 30 or more days delinquent soared to a whopping 23.4 percent last month.

#13 American Airlines just announced that they will be eliminating 19,000 jobs next month.

#14 31 percent of U.S. workers that were brought back to work after being laid off during the early stages of this pandemic have been laid off a second time, and another 26 percent have been told that layoffs may be coming soon.

#15 According to one recent survey, about half of all U.S. workers that have been laid off during this pandemic believe that their jobs losses are permanent.

#16 The IRS is projecting that it will receive 37 million fewer W-2 forms for this year than originally anticipated.

#17 Over the last 22 weeks, more than 57 million Americans have filed new claims for unemployment benefits.  In all of U.S. history, we have never seen anything that is even worth comparing to this. ”

Many of the numbers on that list are so catastrophic that it is difficult to believe they are actually true.

What we experienced back in 2008 and 2009 was a “deep recession”, but that pales into insignificance to the current situation.

Comments: If the USA has crumbled so quickly, imagine the situation in poorer countries with less resources. Ironically, the countries where the population does not depend on the government for financial support and those where the population owns even small patches of land, where they can still grow food and live a more subsistence life, may actually fare better than middle income and more developed countries. However, many African countries that have been minimally affected by COVID19, still locked down their country or by default will have suffered economically. Some, like South Africa and Kenya, that rely on tourism, have already been forced to go to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for support. This may further erode their economic sovereignty and make them vulnerable to dictates of the IMF and World Bank, institutions not known for their compassion in supporting the people of Africa.

The media in the US has gone crazy, disputing the implications of a CDC report that only 6% of all COVID19 cases died solely from COVID without any other pre-existing conditions. One August 31st, the New York Post ran the headline: “94% of Americans who dies from COVID-19 had contributing conditions:CDC”

Ninety-four percent of Americans who died from COVID-19 had other “types of health conditions and contributing causes” in addition to the virus, according to a new CDC report.

Using provisional data on coronavirus-related deaths from the week ending Feb. 1 through Aug. 22, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention concluded last week that “for 6 percent of the deaths, COVID-19 was the only cause mentioned.”

“For deaths with conditions or causes in addition to COVID-19, on average, there were 2.6 additional conditions or causes per death,” the report said.

Respiratory conditions such as influenza and pneumonia, respiratory failure and respiratory arrest, as well as circulatory conditions such as hypertensive diseases, cardiac arrest and heart failure are on the list.

Other conditions included sepsis, diabetes, renal failure and Alzheimer’s disease.

The counts are based on death certificates, which the agency called “the most reliable source of data.”

However, the provisional data is not yet complete, the counts are not final, and they should not be compared across states, the agency warned.

As of Monday, the US has surpassed 6 million coronavirus cases and 183,000 deaths, Johns Hopkins University statistics show.

Many other mainstream media outlets tried to explain this in different ways, exploring the grey areas between COVID19 directly killing people, or being the last straw for an already chronically ill patient. Most were trying to make it look like COVID19 is still more serious than it has been portrayed.

The Miami Herald reported:

“The misconception went viral on social media; Twitter removed a tweet on Sunday that promoted the false interpretation of the CDC’s data, which President Donald Trump shared to his 85.6 million followers, media outlets reported.

What the CDC’s update really means is that 94% of the people who died from the coronavirus had at least one other health condition, in addition to COVID-19, that could have contributed to their passing — not that the additional factor was the sole reason for it.”

Comment: However you look at it, healthy people with no co-morbidities or pre-existing conditions, who are not obese, are not immune compromised, are not on medications like ACE inhibitors etc. are in the vast majority of cases NOT going to get sick or die from COVID19. Therefore, based on that FACT, locking healthy people in their homes, stopping children going to school, mandating the wearing of masks makes absolutely no rational sense, and those experts who continue to advocate for this, including Dr Fauci and Dr Birx in the USA and Dr Ferguson, Whitty, Valance et al in the UK, are responsible for propagating a most tragic situation on millions of people, who have lost their jobs and in many cases, their lives as a result of this flawed strategy.

It doesn’t matter now how you put it, it seems the facts are in. If you are healthy, COVID19 is not a risk. Testing positive with a flawed PCR test doesn’t change that if you are not expressing symptoms. If you have mild symptoms, stay at home and rest. Only the most vulnerable will need help and should be protected. The rest of us will be OK.

From August 2^nd, the government of the state of Victoria, largest city Melbourne, has re-instituted a severe lockdown of over 5 million people, after the appearances of more positive cases.

Many are saying these strategies are too extreme and are causing untold damage economically and personally. The UK Daily Mail’s article on August 22^nd reports the implications:
“Police and army entering your home without a warrant, 8pm curfew and up to 400,000 jobs lost: Melbourne’s lockdown is labelled the worst EVER breach of Aussie freedoms as calls grow for it to be scrapped”

“Victoria’s state of disaster, from 2 August, gives huge power to the government.”

“The Police Minister can seize private property and officers can enter homes.”

“Research group Institute of Public Affairs (IPA) says Melbourne’s stage-four restrictions have gone too far.”

“Up to 400,000 are set to lose their jobs due to forced closure of businesses.”

Furthermore Australia’s Premier has initiated an on the spot fine of $5,000 for anybody who breaches the new restrictions. Yes, that is correct. A $5,000 fine.  The Premier is also hoping to extend the State of Emergency, enabling him to extend all these restrictions for another 1-2 years. It is currently being debated in the state government.

Comment:

Australia has already seen some of the most stringent and draconian policies in response to COVID19 in the world. The Premier Scott Morrison recently said he would like to make a vaccine mandatory but was forced under pressure to pull back from that statement. People from Victoria can’t cross state borders, under penalty of six months in prison and a $11,000 fine. The extraordinary limits imposed on Victoria’s citizens suspends all normal democratic laws and allows authorities to seize property, stop people on streets without reason, and insist on seeing permits required to be outside your own home. The government has not formally met since March and yet continues to receive their salaries. According to the Institute of Public Affairs in Australia (a video is linked to the Daily Mail article) it is estimated that many thousands will permanently lose their jobs as businesses will not open again and up to 3.2 billion dollars a week is being lost due to business closures.

Despite this catastrophic prediction, the Premier of Victoria, Daniel Andrews has said he wants to extend the State of Emergency for another 12 months. In order to be able to do this, it would require the passing of a new law and he will need the support of opposition and backbenchers in his government. As of now, a State of Emergency can only be in place for 6 months and is due to expire in September. The prospect of its extension is causing serious concern and constitutional questions regarding the state of democracy in Victoria if such executive power is allowed.

The figures and lockdown

The total number of deaths assigned to COVID19 in Australia over the last eight months, is 549 in a population of 25 million, or approximately 22 deaths per million.

As we have said many times, every death is a tragedy, but the negative and potentially catastrophic impacts of lockdown are being witnessed across the world. From crashed economies to mass unemployment, to literally starvation in the developing world and a huge spike in suicides and domestic violence.

It could be argued that if lockdown hadn’t happened, the death rate would be higher, but as mentioned on this blog already, other countries that did lockdown had high death rates. Countries that didn’t lockdown including Japan have had very low death rates and Sweden with no lockdown has a lower death rate than the UK, Spain and Italy. Lockdown or not makes little difference, and furthermore evidence is emerging that the impact of lockdown will kill far more people than COVID19 itself. .

Conclusions

Many countries are still insisting that lockdown is the best policy. It was initially justified to flatten the curve and lower the Ro number. Now we are seeing an attempt to totally “suppress” the disease and stop spread of the virus, measured solely on the number of positive PCR tests and not the number of deaths, hospitalisations and patients in ICU. In this attempt, Australia is now embarking on one of the most draconian lockdowns imaginable.

It needs to be stated clearly the nature of these lockdowns. It is now, in all but name, a police state. Police are allowed to enter homes without permission and remove people to quarantine facilities. They can confiscate property in the name of COVID19. People must remain at home 23 hours a day, and are allowed to exercise outdoors for just one hour. They cannot travel further than 5km from their home. They need a permit to leave and to work. They cannot visit family, or gather together. There are military and police patrols with drones and helicopters to find those not following the rules. None of this even begins to describe the accompanying economic implosion. Can this be justified? It cannot.

It is clear that Covid19 affects elderly and vulnerable people with co-morbidities. No one can refute this. Apart from those most vulnerable, over 99% of people recover. How is it possible to rationalize closing down the lives of 5 million people in Victoria, based on a small number of new cases, given the known inaccuracy of the PCR test used to detect them. Not only will it destroy the livelihoods of hundreds of thousands of people and the economy for many years to come, but perhaps more importantly it sets a terrible precedent, that the democratically elected leader of a state in Australia can simply eviscerate all fundamental freedoms, based on a profoundly wrong analysis of the risks of Covid19. This is unprecedented and by any measure of democracy, unacceptable and dangerous.

On September 5^th a national demonstration is being planned in Australia. It will be a test how the people in Australia resist the imposition of martial law and how the authorities respond to this tragic situation.

Dozens of COVID19 labs in Florida have been reporting 100% positive tests!

https://www.heraldtribune.com/news/20200716/florida-reported-100-positive-covid-19-tests-from-some-labs-thats-wrong-hospital-system-says

https://cbs12.com/news/coronavirus/dozens-of-florida-labs-still-report-only-positive-covid-tests-skewing-positivity-rate

“WEST PALM BEACH, Fla. — The positivity rate of COVID-19 tests is a key metric for understanding how the virus is spreading, and how prevalent infections are in the community.

The Florida Department of Health reports the positivity rate of coronavirus tests each day — which is supposed to show the number of positive tests compared to the number of total tests.

This week, the accuracy of the state’s positivity reporting has come into question.

A review of state data shows many small, private labs have been reporting only their positive results to the state — skewing the positivity rate higher.

Even after this issue came to light earlier this week, several dozen labs are still reporting 100% positivity rates, according to a review of Friday’s DOH data.

“Today alone there are 98 labs reporting positive results, accounting for 355 positive tests,” said Jon Taylor, a PhD student at Florida Atlantic University.

“It should be concerning,” he said. “We are basing decisions off of the positivity rate, and we need to know why some labs are reporting 100 percent positive tests.”

Taylor has been working with FAU Finance Professor Dr. Rebel Cole on their own COVID tracker.

“We will provide a deeper dive into the metrics,” said Dr. Cole.”

Comments: These newspaper columns appeared on July 16^th as media reports of a serious spike in cases in Florida was reported. One newspaper showed a line of cars going through a drive-through testing site, showing that it is likely many more people are being tested now. However, reports that some labs are giving 100% positive tests when another hospital says their positive rate is 18%. What is true? The tests are either not accurate, as we have mentioned already and/or the labs are manufacturing the results and / or just not reporting any negative results. Either way, the numbers upon which policy is being made, resources allocated and lives disrupted are being skewed. Private labs need to be investigated asap.

South Africa has been widely discussed on this blog, regarding the impact of COVID19 on the country, despite one of the most severe lockdowns anywhere in the world. It is true that the health system has been under pressure recently, but it is difficult to ascertain whether that is due to a backlog of non-COVID19 cases attending hospital when lockdown was partially relaxed. A BBC article on July 15^th paints a very extreme picture of the challenges faced by the health service with striking staff, utterly inadequate resources and extremely dirty environments. It is possible that COVID19 positive patients are attending the hospitals and spreading the infection, as happened in the UK’s care homes.

The collateral damage due to lockdown in South Africa has been extreme, with millions thrown into poverty and in some areas potential starvation. However, the lockdown strategy is still the dominant policy and even now, on July 24^th, the government has changed course on opening schools and is re-imposing other lockdown measures, including curfews. As of July 23^rd, South Africa had 5,940 deaths in a population of 60 million, far less than most European countries. Even if more cases are being diagnosed due to more testing, the overall mortality rate is still relatively low, challenging the suggestion that things are getting worse again.

On August 2^nd the BBC has reported that the cases in South Africa are now over ½ million and with 8,153 deaths. So, it seems that things are getting much worse. The article said that the lockdown helped to slow the spread of the virus. Maybe it’s the opposite and the lockdown simply delayed the spread and achieved nothing. The WHO was even reported in the same article as saying the South Africa experience is a precursor of what will happen in the rest of the continent. More conjecture and propaganda from the WHO perhaps. Are we really sure that the current mortality rate is really due to COVID19 or as has been seen in many other countries, the death figures are being exaggerated due to the numbers of co-morbidities and false positive tests. As stated before, dying WITH Covid and not OF Covid. What is the truth?

Every year, the winter months in the southern hemisphere are cold, this year in South Africa, temperatures are below zero. During the annual flu season, people die of the flu and pneumonia. Do these deaths account for some of the total ascribed to COVID19? Also, as with many countries, including those in Europe, the flu season can put hospitals under serious pressure. Italy, like South Africa, was an example of a country with very capable front-line medical facilities, but under funded and stretched to the limit during the flu season. This is not an unusual experience. Many of the deaths now in South Africa may be a reflection of the challenges in the health system compounded by the impact of having locked the whole country down for two months.

More focus is now being put on the factors which may predispose a country to have a higher number of cases and mortalities, and why some individuals may be more likely to succumb to get the virus while others don’t. This type of research and analysis is vital in understanding the complexities of this pandemic. It is too simplistic to assume that the virus would have the same effect on all populations. Two British epidemiologists discussed the issues on Lockdowntv, and concluded that this so-called “pandemic” has in fact behaved more like a normal “seasonal” epidemic; it has affected predominantly only a certain group of people and the peak of mortalities was seen over a fairly short period of time.

The following is a list of possible reasons for the high numbers of mortalities in relation to their demographics:

• The number of elderly people in care homes in relation to the number of elderly people in a particular country: higher in Europe and the USA, lower in India and Africa.
• Government strategy toward protecting people in care homes, woefully inadequate in the UK.
• The crisis precipitated by the lack of care workers and support given to care homes. (This was seen in particular in Italy, Spain, USA (New York), UK and Sweden).
• The intensity of the strategy of using ventilators which have likely killed 80% of people put on them. This is possibly more in countries with higher number of ventilators available . ref our article
• The amount of possible false positive tests and “probable cases” attributed to COVID19 when it is possible they weren’t positive. (This has been seen in particular in the USA due to the CARES ACT funding of hospital, more funding for COVID19 cases than pneumonia for example.
• The types of medications given. The demonstrated clinical success of hydroxychloroquine was denied in many countries and WHO policy has been that it should not be used after some highly criticized trials seemed to show it was dangerous.
• The degree of existing ill health in some countries, especially the elderly with co-morbidities, including obesity. This may be a factor in the USA where the immune system of many people is highly compromised due to poor diet, junk food and the resultant metabolic syndrome, along with high levels of pharmaceutical medication.
• The amount of specific medications that may create a greater susceptibility to serious symptoms of COVID19. This may include ACE inhibitor drugs that are given for hypertension and diabetes and statins for cholesterol. (Elderly people in the USA generally take far more prescribed medication than in other countries).
• A lack of vitamin D in elderly people in Northern Europe in the winter. Also lack of Vitamin C and Zinc, deficiency of which have been shown to increase the risk of a poor outcome.

Comments: The situation is different in each country but the fact remains that COVID19 is not as lethal as has been reported in the media and the total number of deaths is, after 8 months, still within the range of a bad flu season. Young and healthy people are very unlikely to suffer serious symptoms of the virus (unlike the flu) and therefore focus should be on caring for the vulnerable. A vaccine is not necessary to protect the vast majority of people. Money would be better spent on preparation in care homes and hospitals in case another wave comes in the winter, rather than spending billions on drugs and vaccines that may or may not work.

In the USA and Europe, the high mortality rates may be due to weakened immune systems, in turn directly related to issues of diet, obesity, lack of exercise, over medication, lack of Vitamin D after a long dark winter and an inability to take care of the most vulnerable. An indictment of the quality of life in the “developed” world. For the rest of the world, the response to COVID19 has, indirectly, created far greater issues for them to deal with.

It is the winter in Southern Africa and each year people die of flu, pneumonia and other conditions. Millions live in poor conditions, creating challenging situations for their health and well-being. COVID19 seems to be being blown out of all proportion to fulfil the agenda pushed by the WHO and others. Millions have suffered from the privations of a rigid lockdown, in a country that could not support its people and now it’s paying the price for this.

We have said on this blog from the very start of deaths reported from CoVID19 that the numbers don’t add up. There have been WHO directives instructing doctors to call it COVID19 even if the test is “inconclusive or not available.  We’ve heard from doctors on the COVID19 in Minessota, US, being told to put COVID19 on the death certificate whether or not that was the cause of death. The doctor who blew the whistle on this is now under investigation by his Medical Board for spreading misinformation, even though he has a copy of the official memo that informed him of the policy.

Deaths in care homes account for at least 47% of COVID19 deaths in the UK and other countries in Europe where elders were sent home from hospital to care homes without being tested and issued with Do Not Resucitate notices without their agreement.

Now Matt Hancock, Secretary of State for Health in the UK has ordered a review of the death count in the UK after it was revealed that officials have been following up positive COVID19 cases  to see if they are still alive. Where the patient has since died, they are counted as a COVID19 death, even if their death had nothing to do with COVID19. If the positive person died in a car crash it would be counted as a COVID19 death.

The Numbers issue while undeniably tragic becomes evermore farcical. Today in The Guardian, the headline said that COVID19 is spreading in Papua New Guinea as Melanesia had had its first COVID19 death – the article itself explained that the woman was already in hospital with stage 4 breast cancer.

If we can’t think of a reason why governments would artificially inflate the number of deaths in a pandemic, then we have no choice but to look at the possibility of an agenda.

The BBC reported on July 7^th that, according to the World Health Organization (WHO), Africa is seeing coronavirus cases rapidly increasing and deaths rising, As we have followed the situation in Africa, we have watched the WHO relentlessly overinflate the problem on the continent, including making wild speculations of the number of anticipated cases. It is religiously advocating the lockdown strategy with little regard to the profound resulting damage and the disconnect when numbers don’t match the speculation.

The BBC article does give some balance to this, recognizing that the current numbers don’t tell us that much, and that increased testing is one reason for more cases. Also, the report states that the majority of cases are in Egypt and South Africa, with 60% of all new cases reported in late June and just 10 countries accounted for 80% of all the reported cases in Africa. In the rest of the continent, over 1 billion people, COVID19 is basically non-existent, but governments have still been told to lockdown.

Africa is often talked about as if it’s one country. Little time is given to explore the differences between the countries and why the figures vary considerably. How countries are measuring and identifying COVID19 cases is one obvious reason, but it seems that for the WHO, all the focus is on the increasing numbers of cases. There seems to be a need to continually magnify the issue in South Africa and say things are getting worse, when perhaps it is again the result of increased testing. Are the deaths being attributed to COVID19 really just that? Are people dying WITH COVID or OF COVID? It is hard to tell. It is a fair question to ask and important to know what the real cause of death may be. The BBC article does at least clarify that it is difficult to analyse the figures given the inconsistencies in testing. It doesn’t discuss the fact that many of the tests may be inaccurate, further confusing the numbers.

The fact still remains that for nearly all African countries, more people die every day of many more diseases than COVID19 but the WHO seems obsessed with giving worst-case scenarios and maintaining the fear. For example, Tuberculosis is the most infectious disease and kills more people in Africa than any other disease. According to the WHO:

• Tuberculosis (TB) is the ninth leading cause of death worldwide and the leading cause from a single infectious agent, ranking above HIV/AIDS.
• In 2016, 2.5 million people fell ill with TB in the African region, accounting for a quarter of new TB cases worldwide.
• An estimated 417,000 people died from the disease in the African region (1.7 million globally) in 2016. Over 25% of TB deaths occur in the African Region.

South Africa has the largest number of COVID19 cases and mortalities, with 3,860 deaths as of July 11^th. In 2018, 63,000 people died of TB of which it was estimated 42,000 were HIV positive. In the whole of Africa, there have been only 12,809 COVID19 based deaths as of July 11^th, whereas, according to the WHO figures above, 417,000 died of TB in the African region in 2016, and yet the WHO didn’t insist everyone wear masks because of TB.

There is NO doubt that COVID19 is a serious concern, but when compared to many other serious diseases impacting the world, it is clear that COVID19 is being given extraordinary attention and funding despite there being no figures to justify it.

In an article in the Mail and Guardian, South Africa, Solomon Derrso, head of the African Union Commission on Human Rights expressed his concerns regarding the economic fallout hitting Africa.

“The first worry that I have is that the socioeconomic and humanitarian fallout from the Covid-19 response measures may descend into a human rights catastrophe as millions of peoples lose jobs or have their livelihoods in the informal sectors wiped out, and are pushed into extreme poverty; and as millions of others face hunger and starvation”

As the pandemic drags on, so its economic effect becomes clearer: this week, the International Monetary Fund estimated that sub-Saharan Africa’s gross domestic product will contract by 3.2% this year, putting between 26-million and 39-million Africans at risk of falling into extreme poverty.

“The fear is that we will undo some gains that have been made over the years,” Dersso said, citing trends in maternal mortality rates, child marriage and the enrollment of girls in school as the areas he is particularly worried about.

He also states his concerns that an overwhelmingly young population will increase the issues, leading to potential serious political instability, sinilar to the situation in Mali where there are on-going anti-government protests. He admitted that his own commission is not always popular with African governments when they are challenged on human rights violations. In an opinion piece for the M&G last month, Dersso called out states that resorted to police brutality to enforce Covid-19 restrictions, including Kenya, Nigeria and South Africa. In the long term, he is worried about those same restrictions becoming permanent fixtures — much like emergency anti-terrorism legislation has a habit of remaining on the books even once the threat has passed, and is used to censor free speech, media and human rights activists.

“We have been consistent in saying that whatever emergency rules and measures have been put in place in response to Covid-19 have to be temporary, absolutely temporary. There is a danger of these things being institutionalised, thereby putting undue restrictions on rights.”

But it’s not all bad news.

“I am comforted by the ever increasing awareness and consciousness of members of the public about their rights. I am encouraged by the rise in the willingness and ability of young people to demand respect for and protection of their rights. I feel hopeful about the sense of ownership of the human rights agenda on the continent with national institutions, civil society organisations and the media increasingly working on rights issues or approaching the governance and socioeconomic ills afflicting our societies from a human rights perspective,” Dersso said.

Comment: Similar concerns need to be voiced in Europe. In the UK the Corona Virus Bill has already extended limitations on rights and freedoms, ostensibily for two years with regular reviews. We need to ensure that such measures don’t move onto the statute books.

A study by the International Long Term Care Policy Network, hosted by the Care Policy and Evaluation Network at the London School of Economics updated the number of care home deaths across the world and came to the following conclusions:

• Official data on the numbers of deaths among care home residents linked to COVID-19 is not available in many countries but an increasing number of countries are publishing data
• International comparisons are difficult due to differences in testing availabilities and policies, different approaches to recording deaths, and differing definitions of what constitutes a “care home”.
• There are three main approaches to quantifying deaths in relation to COVID-19: deaths of people who test positive(before or after their death), deaths of people suspected to have COVID-19 (based on symptoms or epidemiologically linked), and excess deaths (comparing total number of deaths with those in the same weeks in previous years).Another important distinction is whether the data covers deaths of care home residents or only deaths in the care home (as there are variations in the share of care home residents who are admitted to hospital and may die there)
• This updated report contains data from a larger number of countries and this shows that earlier suggestions(when data were available for fewer countries) that the share of all COVID-19 deaths who were care residents increases with the total number of deaths may not be a robust finding, as New Zealand and Slovenia, despite having had relatively small numbers of total COVID deaths, have had a large share of those deaths among care home residents (72 and 81% respectively).
• The impact of COVID-19 on care home residents has been very different internationally, with some countries reporting no deaths (or infections) in care homes, such as Hong Kong, Jordan and Malta, and two countries reporting that over 80% of COVID-19 deaths were of care home residents. Without including the three countries with zero deaths, and with the caveat that the definitions used vary, on average the share of all COVID-19 deaths that were care home residents is 47% (based on 26 countries).

Comments: This confirms our earlier commentaries on the profoundly disturbing fact that a large number of the total deaths of COVID19 were elderly people in care homes. Many of these people were not being adequately looked after, with evidence that in Spain and Italy, elderly people were left to die as workers didn’t come to work or simply left the country before lockdown. In New York, the UK and other countries, care homes were not protected well enough: elderly people were sent back to the care homes after hospitalization, without being tested for COVID19, care workers were not provided with sufficient information and the resources necessary to prevent the spread of the virus to the residents. In the UK, elders were isolated, pressured to sign Do Not Resuscitate notices and families were banned from visiting,

Elderly people, especially in winter were deficient of Vitamin D, essential for the immune system, and many were on ACE inhibitor drugs (for hypertension, diabetes, high cholesterol) that may have made them more susceptible to COVID19. The elderly are also prone to Zinc deficiency, which has been shown to increase the risk of poor outcomes to COVID19.

For otherwise healthy people, the chance of a serious infection is minimal. Walking outdoors carries little chance of infection, mask or not. The reality is that immune compromised people, especially the elderly, living in close quarters are the most vulnerable. It is therefore not surprising that the elderly in care homes have borne the brunt of COVID19. Rather than protect a group already identified as being at particular risk, they were, in the event, badly neglected.

According to the L.A Times on June 18^th, “Gov. Gavin Newsom ……. ordered all Californians to wear face coverings while in public or high-risk settings, including when shopping, taking public transit or seeking medical care, after growing concerns that an increase in coronavirus cases has been caused by residents failing to voluntarily take that precaution.”

Some counties in California were taking an ambivalent attitude toward mandating face covering and, according to the Governor, too many people were not complying. The article continued, “Under state law, residents who violate the new requirement could be charged with a misdemeanor and potentially face a financial penalty, according to a representative for the Newsom administration. However, officials have shied away from enforcing other statewide coronavirus mandates with similar actions, choosing instead to encourage compliance and educate residents about the benefits of safeguards against spread of the virus.” Since the June 18^th order, five sheriff departments say they won’t enforce it.

Comments: The evidence regarding the wearing of masks has been contradictory from the beginning, with conflicted evidence of its efficacy. The WHO itself has changed its tune on this issue, as have many governments, and now says that healthy people should wear masks when taking care of corona virus patients. At best it may stop a positive person spreading the virus, but a mask will have minimal impact at best on stopping a negative person becoming infected. Given the small size of the COVID19 virus, the types of masks being worn won’t keep them out. There has been ample evidence of the lack of efficacy of wearing masks but the decision to make mask wearing compulsory in certain locations or activities now has more to do with conformity, however contradictory.

California, with a population of about 33 million people has seen 5,518 deaths (June 22^nd), or 140 deaths per million population. Over 3,000 of those deaths have been in L.A. County with a population of over 10 million. This is a higher percentage per capita population than the rest of the state (2,500 deaths in the remaining 23 million people). This may be because the percentage of elderly people in care homes is high in L.A County. Neighbouring Orange County with a population of 3.1 million people has only seen 269 deaths and San Bernadino County, a large county to the North East of L.A, with a population of 2.1 million people has only seen 233 deaths. Therefore, the deaths in LA are proportionately higher than surrounding counties.

Similar to most other analyses, over 50% of the deaths in L.A County have been in care homes, as this report in May reveals. Given all factors, it is likely to be similar or even higher now. Some reports from Canada showed that deaths in care homes could be as high as 80% of the total deaths. Therefore, the extraordinary drama that has unfolded in the USA, including California, a state roughly the size of the UK, Spain and France combined, with partial lockdowns, massive economic turmoil and ongoing social distancing strategies, including mask wearing, has been precipitated by 5,500 deaths, 3,000 of which are in one county. At least 1,500 of these were elderly people in care homes. Should the remainder of the state also have been closed is now the big question. Should masks be compulsory, since the evidence shows them to be largely ineffective? In an average flu season, the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) states that deaths in the USA can vary from between 30,000 to 60,000 in a season. If we use 50,000 as a round number and given that California has a 1/10^th of the total population of the country, one would expect 5,000 Californians to die of the flu each year, which is about the same as have died of COVID19 this year. There are some questions now about whether we will see extra flu deaths this year, or what is possibly more likely is that many of the same people who died of COVID19 would have died from complications flowing a bout of flu.

It is also possible that some people already exposed to COVID19 may have some immunity to the season’s flu virus, even if though it will not be another corona virus. There is still much we don’t know, but what we do know is that masks will do very little to stop the virus spreading and should be limited to those who are sick or in close proximity to the vulnerable.

The African continent continues to have some of the lowest COVID19 figures in the world. In a population of 1.2 billion, there are 7,400 deaths (June 20^th). Most of the deaths come from just 10 countries with South Africa accounting for the highest proportion of the deaths. The WHO continues to project huge increases in the number of COVID19 cases and mortalities.

On June 11^th, the BBC reported that the corona virus pandemic is accelerating in Africa. “The WHO’s Africa Regional Director Matshidiso Moeti, said it was spreading beyond capital cities and that a lack of tests and other supplies was hampering responses.” But more importantly she said, “ it did not seem as if severe cases and deaths were being missed by authorities.” The article continues “South Africa had more than a quarter of the reported cases and was seeing high numbers of confirmed cases and deaths in Eastern Cape and Western Cape provinces, Dr Moeti told a briefing at WHO headquarters in Geneva. She added that Western Cape was looking similar to recent outbreaks in Europe and the US.”

After three months of severe lockdown in South Africa, there have been 1,800 deaths from COVID19 in a population of 60 million, or 29 deaths for every million people. The comparison with Europe and the US does not seem to be supported by the numbers.

The BBC continued, “South Africa’s government has been praised for its early and decisive imposition of a lockdown but the easing of restrictions in June has been accompanied by a rise in infections.”

“Even though these cases in Africa account for less than 3% of the global total, it is clear that the pandemic is accelerating… and cases were likely to continue increasing for the foreseeable future.”

“Until such time as we have access to an effective vaccine, I’m afraid we’ll probably have to live with a steady increase in the region….”

A subsequent article in the UK Guardian on June 19^th, was titled African governments drop COVID19 curbs in effort to limit economic harm, despite the rapid rise in the numbers of cases across the continent. The article quotes: “The WHO has previously said the COVID19 pandemic could smoulder in Africa for several years, after killing as many as 190,000 people in the coming 12 months,” but recognized that the extended lockdown was doing massive harm to the socio-economic wellbeing of many countries. “South Africa, one of the most industrialised economies in Africa, will take six years to recover from the lockdown and ongoing restrictions, according to some estimates.” . “We should not mask the challenge we still have with testing,” Dr John Nkengasong, the director of the Africa Centres for Disease Control, said on Thursday. “We have to scale this up aggressively so we can get ahead of the pandemic.” The article finishes by quoting South Africa’s President Ramaphosa, admitting that the damage and violence due to the lockdown has been terrible.

Comments:

It seems even the WHO is beginning to recognize the damage being done due to lockdown. However, the articles are still focusing on the basic increase in the numbers of cases, which as we have seen doesn’t necessarily connect to the numbers of deaths. It may just reflect an increase in the amount of testing being done, which, as in many countries has been used to justify the need for stringent lockdown measures. All epidemiological and medical data has shown that deaths due to COVID19 are still predominantly in the elderly and the vulnerable. Young and healthy people do not experience the disease as life threatening, many remain asymptomatic. We have reported this in other posts including South Africa using numbers to justify suffering. The BBC article quotes the head of Africa’s Centres for Disease Control on the importance of more testing, and yet the South African government has admitted that wide spread testing, especially of asymptomatic people is not possible. Perhaps the following questions should be asked of the WHO:

1. Why do they say the pandemic increasing and likely to do so for the “foreseeable future” if all evidence shows that the peak of cases has occurred after two months in most countries? Why is there going to be a continued steady increase in the region, if that hasn’t been seen in other countries? What evidence is there for that prediction?
2. If there is a lack of testing outside the cities how do we know if the cases are spreading?
3. Are mortality rates from COVID19 increasing or is the increase in deaths due to other reasons, including the consequences of lockdown?
4. The WHO’s warnings of ever increasing cases and deaths, reported by the BBC, UK Guardian and other media, seems to be to keep pressure on South Africa, and in turn to use them as an example to pressure other African countries to lockdown, despite the numbers not supporting this view. As South Africa goes, so does much of the continent.
5. Africa should be very cautious in accepting the prognoses of the WHO, especially when weighing up the profound socio-economic impact of the lockdown measures against comparatively few cases of COVID19. As the vast majority of mortalities in all countries are the elderly and vulnerable, it seems unlikely we will see a huge increase in mortalities in a predominantly young population. The consequences of prolonging lockdown are likely to be much worse.

Demonstrators took to the streets of Mathare, one of the largest “slum” areas of Nairobi, to voice their concerns against police violence during the COVID19 situation, amid the enforcement of nightly curfews.

“At least 15 people have been killed by police, and 31 people injured since the curfew was imposed, the Independent Policing Oversight Authority (IPOA) said last week”

However, the figure is likely to be much higher as many extra-judicial killings go unreported. Even before COVID19, the Police Oversight Authority had many cases of police killings on its hands with little cooperation from the government in seeking justice. Killings tlike this ake place not only in Nairobi, but also in Mombasa, Kenya’s 2^nd largest city, where police often justify their actions by saying they are routing out Al Shabab terrorists. One strategy of police there has been to offer amnesty to young people supposedly affiliated with Al Shabab and then kill them anyway.

In this demonstration, people were showing solidarity with the global protests against police violence after the Floyd killing in the US.

“The poor people of Mathare stand in solidarity with the poor people of America, the black people of America. We want them to know that this struggle is one,” said Juliet Wanjira, 25, the co-founder of Mathare Social Justice Centre. While the global protests have localised contexts, Wanjira sees a common theme. “This is a poor people’s struggle,” she said. “Poor people are [treated as] criminals and not given dignity.”

So far Kenya has had 88 deaths, in a population of 53 million, due to COVID19, so it is possible that nearly as many have died from police violence as the virus. Another tragedy of the collateral damage from the lockdown strategy, that Kenya continues to impose almost three months later.